There has been much conversation among Democrats and their supporters trying to sort through all the possible reasons why their candidate, Kamala Harris, lost to one of the most divisive and polarizing figures in American history. As someone who has helped get Democrats elected, I’ve listened in on some of these meetings, and I can tell you they have not been pretty. I’ve heard stoic dissertations about how the party has lurched too far left. I’ve listened to panicked insistences that Elon Musk stole the election. Nancy Pelosi, among others, suggested that it’s Joe Biden’s fault for dropping out so late and then endorsing Harris right away (forgetting, of course, that Pelosi was among the cabal who forced Biden to drop out so late AND to endorse Harris right away). And then, of course, there are the plethora of unhinged diatribes about how half the country is racist, sexist, fascist and a host of other -ists.
For me, none of these excuses ring true. As someone who has worked in branding for more than 30-years, the most plausible explanation is the one my colleagues on the left will hate the most. Nevertheless, for the good of the party, and the good of politics, here we go:
I think the election outcome is the result of Democrats consistently violating one of the core tenets of branding: Don’t break trust with your target audience.
For many conservative voters, trust in the Democratic Party establishment was eroded during Hillary Clinton’s failed presidential campaign. From their perspective, the sheer number of “dirty tricks” the Clinton campaign attempted was unprecedented. They’re not wholly off base. The Steele dossier that, fueled the investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia was, by all accounts, a political stunt paid for by the Clinton campaign. Even though it was debunked repeatedly, the fallout from it hamstrung the Trump administration and mired it in years of investigations and reams of scandalous press. The whole “not my president” movement that followed stated very clearly that Democrats would do anything to bring Trump down. The first impeachment felt like nonsense, and AG’s ran on a campaign promise that sounded a lot like Lavrentiy Beria, the chief of Joseph Stalin’s secret police who famously said, “show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.”
For those of us who can’t stand Trump and didn’t care if he was investigated fairly or unfairly, the real destruction of the Democratic Party’s brand started during COVID. The sheer number of positions and rules that were overtly an affront to common sense was staggering. The vilification of anyone who questioned them was even worse.
Look. I can admit it. I was one of the people who was wiping groceries down with alcohol and leaving them in the sun for an hour after getting home. At the same time, I cringed as I watched friends of mine come completely unhinged anytime someone asked, “isn’t it at least possible that the lab in Wuhan that runs experiments on novel coronavirus was the source of the novel coronaviruses that started in Wuhan and turned into the global pandemic?”
Hearing the out-of-hand rejection of logical questions, accompanied by calling the people who asked them “crazy” “conspiracy theorists” “Q-balls” etc, back in 2021 was when I first thought to myself, “wow, the Democrats might be toast in 2024.”
My thoughts on this were solidified as I lost both work and friends because I did not get vaccinated. It simply didn’t make sense to me. Democrats told us that the vaccine would “stop the spread.” Science told us it wouldn’t. By the time this affected me directly, we had known for quite a while that the COVID vaccines neither stopped people from getting COVID nor did they prevent people from spreading it. Still, anyone like me who decided against getting a vaccination, for whatever reason, was called out and ostracized.
Case in point, in 2022 I was prohibited from directing a series of national TV commercials because COVID policies would not allow an unvaccinated person on the set. This happened even though I tested negative twice (once 72 hours before the job, once on a rapid test the day of). Nevertheless, when I got to the set, I was asked to show proof of vaccine. You can guess the reaction when I asked, “what additional risk does an unvaccinated person who does not have COVID poses to a vaccinated person who also does not have COVID?”
The contorted logic wasn’t restricted just to COVID. Absurd assertions, followed by harsh backlash for anyone questioning them, quickly became the hallmark of the Biden/Harris administration.
You’re an idiot if you think trillions in new spending might cause inflation.
Only lunatics would suggest loosening border restrictions might cause a flood of new migrants.
You think scaling back domestic gas production will cause gas prices to spike? Nonsense!
The list goes on.
For most working class voters, the straw that broke the camels back likely came over the past year as they were repeatedly reminded that they were experiencing the greatest economy of our lives. “Stock prices are soaring and unemployment is down. Things are great!”
Maybe all of that is true, but if you’re the “working man’s party” none of these things have that much day-to-day impact on your base. What affects their lives is the fact that coffee is 50% more expensive than when Biden first took office. Chicken is up 40% and eggs are up 163% (you now know which came first). And maybe most important, average rent in the US is up 30%.
This last point might lead some back to the well-worn “it’s the economy, stupid” excuse. As you can see by the headlines shown above, though, the economy is likely just one of many, many things the American people have been lied to about for the past four years. Worse still, when the average working-class person questioned talking points that seemed even mildly unsound, they were called “uneducated,” which, in case you didn’t realize, is pretty much the same thing as being called a “dumbass.”
I believe that, at some point, the majority of voters simply lost trust in anything the Democrats said, whether it was about the economy or immigration or crime or, most importantly, about Donald J. Trump. Too many voters looked at the preponderance of prevarications pushed by Biden/Harris administration – and of all the other politicians, celebrities and media outlets that echoed them — and simply called B.S.
My dad has a saying that I believe aptly captures the sentiment behind this phenomenon: “Don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining.”
And that, I believe, is what ultimately cost the Kamala Harris the election.
As I write this I hear some of you screaming at your computer right now, “But what about Trump! What about Trump? He’s more full of crap than anyone!”
You’re not wrong. But there are three very important things to remember about Trump:
- Hyperbolic carnival barking is actually in-brand for him.
- He lost in 2020 because people were sick of his nonsense.
A third point could also be made that the old adage, the past always looks better than it was, is still valid.
Irrespective, the bottom line is this, whether you are politician a business owner, or a leader in any organization: Your audience is far smarter than you realize. Most of the time, they know when you are trying to gaslight them. Those that are most loyal to you might forgive you now and then. They may even go along with you for a little while if they like you enough. But once lying — and criticizing anyone who points out the lie – becomes a pattern, then it’s part of your brand. And once that happens… you’re toast.
